If he wasn't so mild-mannered and quiet, you'd almost feel bad for Frankie Edgar. On the night he beat the odds and won the UFC lightweight championship by defeating all-time legend BJ Penn, Anderson Silva jumped, jived and danced to a decision that was so controversial, it eclipsed the underdog Edgar's historic win.
Months later, he's in his first main event, but it's hardly the most attention-grabbing fight on the UFC 118 card, not with spotlight-stealing James Toney in attendance.
Yet in some ways, that's just how Edgar would want it. Edgar quietly climbed the UFC ladder in relative anonymity, and he's more than happy to step aside and let the veterans take their bows while he walks away from UFC 118 as the only title-holder.
It's quite likely that Edgar-Penn 2 will be very similar to the original. Edgar has the kind of speed and footwork that will make him difficult to counter from a strict boxing standpoint. Where the match will turn then is Penn's approach. Will the former multi-divisional champion choose to engage Penn using straight boxing? Will he try to crowd him with clinchwork? Turn things into a brawl? Maybe turn the tables on Edgar and try for a few takedowns of his own?
Penn has spoken repeatedly this week of returning to his fighting roots. That suggests that Penn may try to impose his physical strength advantage on Edgar and muscle him against the cage, initiate exchanges and simply add more aggression into his game.
There is little doubt that such a course of action would give Penn his best chance of winning. We've seen him rough up other lightweights like Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian in close quarters, and Edgar is the smallest opponent he's ever faced.
In space, it's Edgar's world. Many people do not appreciate Edgar's technical precision. At just 5-foot-6, Edgar is a man who is constantly at a reach disadvantage against opponents, yet he's outlanded his eight UFC opponents at a 51 percent to 35 percent clip, according to Compustrike.
Also undervalued is his fight instincts. Not only does Edgar have educated hands, he also seems to inherently understand the perfect moment to change levels for the takedown. That's how he got two takedowns against Penn in the first fight while Penn's five previous lightweight opponents went 0-for-25 in that department, according to Compustrike.
During his UFC career, Edgar's landed 57 percent of his takedowns (30 out of 53 tries). While Penn has stuffed the vast majority of opponents over time, he already knows that Edgar can take him down, and being overly aware of your opponent's level changes can slow down your own attack.
Penn's best bet is turning this fight into a brawl, where he'll have a strength and power advantage. But still, we learned that Edgar has no fear or no hesitation in the big moments. I think Edgar will withstand some early Penn flurries and take the fight over with his hands and footwork in the late rounds.
Penn is the favorite in the rematch, and it's understandable. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he won the fight, but I feel like Edgar's speed won't be any easier to deal with a second time around, and as in most sports, speed kills, so I'm taking Edgar via decision to retain his belt in a rare upset win for a defending champion.
Toney vs. Couture
What's to say that hasn't been said when it comes to Toney vs. Randy Couture? While the boxing legend must be lauded for his willingness to attempt the crossover to MMA, it's seems likely to prove a relatively futile pursuit.
There are many fighters in the UFC and other promotions that would willingly trade with Toney and try him at his own game; Couture is not one of them. If Couture throws more than 10 standing punches in each round, something has gone terribly wrong.
Toney is historically a slow starter, and it seems foolish to expect him to come out guns blazing in his first MMA match. Intead, it seems likely that he'll take some time to gauge MMA distance. Expect Couture to take the opportunity to attack Toney's lead leg with a series of kicks.
After he's softened up, Couture will close the distance by initiating a Greco-Roman clinch. Toney seems to think this scenario will favor him, but while he's busy throwing uppercuts, Couture will be scooping him up for a takedown.
Once Toney goes down, the only way he's coming back up is after a TKO or tapout. Toney's only been training MMA seriously since May 1. Couture's been around so long he's forgotten more about the ground game than Toney's ever learned.
There is little to be learned from the boxing stats; either you believe Toney is in a foreign world, or you don't. That's not to say that Toney doesn't have a chance. After all, we watched Ray Mercer knock out Tim Sylvia just last year. But Randy's a different animal, one that actually works to exploit his opponent's weaknesses.
For Toney, that weakness is obvious. He's going down, and he's either going to take a beating until the ref pulls Couture off him, or he's going to give his back and be choked out. I'm betting on the former.
The intrigue surrounding this fight is well placed, but there should be little drama. Toney is a beginner in the classroom of a master. Couture via first-round TKO.
