AMERICAN LEAGUE
After dropping two of three to the Yankees the Red Sox find themselves with just a 14.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. New York, meanwhile, went back over the 90 percent mark in playoff probability with a nearly 75 percent chance of winning the AL East. The Rays have been strong on the road this season, but they dropped five in a row costing them 13 percent. The Rays are in a battle with the Twins and White Sox for the wild card. Currently less than 0.6 wins per simulation separate the three teams in projected win total.
The Twins are AccuScore’s slight favorite to win the AL Central at 56.7 percent vs. 43.3 percent for Chicago, but the White Sox had a great week. The White Sox were 4-2 (all road games) and by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit they basically eliminated them from the playoff picture. With Tampa Bay and Boston both having bad weeks, the White Sox vaulted near 22 percentage points in the playoff race.
The AL West has been largely settled for a month now. Even though they were just 3-3, the Rangers hold a 97.6 percent chance to win the division and make the playoffs. The Athletics were the only AL West team with a winning record last week but they only have a 1.7 percent chance of catching Texas, which is projected to win the division by 10 games.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 18 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 2-Aug | 9-Aug | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Chicago White Sox | 35.9% | 57.7% | 21.8% | 43.3% |
| New York Yankees | 86.3% | 92.2% | 5.9% | 74.6% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Oakland Athletics | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.9% | 0.8% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.6% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 69.6% | 68.5% | -1.1% | 56.7% |
| Texas Rangers | 98.7% | 97.6% | -1.1% | 97.6% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 78.5% | 65.1% | -13.4% | 22.3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 28.8% | 14.3% | -14.5% | 2.8% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Phillies had a tremendous 5-1 week and have improved their playoff chances by over 30 percentage points over the past two weeks. The Phillies also have the advantage of playing seven more home games than road games the rest of the season.
The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with a 20 percent improvement. They currently hold a two-game lead over the Cardinals. AccuScore still sees the Cardinals as the favored team to win the division, but the difference is minimal with the Cardinals at 52.6 percent and Cincinnati at 47.4 percent.
The only team to drop more than St. Louis (11.5 percentage points) were the 2-4 Giants, who had been rolling before struggling on this road trip. The Giants dropped to just a 27 percent chance of winning the division, down from nearly 38 percent the prior week. The Dodgers and Rockies also saw their playoff chances drop, while the Padres were up slightly, despite going just 3-4. The Padres benefited from the Giants’ bad week and the whole division suffered because the Phillies and Reds are the frontrunners for the wild card if they do not win their respective divisions.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 18 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 2-Aug | 9-Aug | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 36.7% | 60.1% | 23.4% | 42.7% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 41.3% | 61.4% | 20.1% | 47.4% |
| San Diego Padres | 70.5% | 72.3% | 1.8% | 60.4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 68.2% | 69.3% | 1.1% | 56.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | ||||
